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Dynamics of material productivity and socioeconomic factors based on auto-regressive distributed lag model in China

机译:基于自回归分布滞后模型的中国物质生产力和社会经济因素动态

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摘要

Material productivity (MP), measured as economic output (such as Gross Domestic Product, GDP) per corresponding material input, is gained significant interest of becoming a widespread environmental sustainability indicator. The study of MP's dynamics is very important for policy-making on how to improve MP. This paper applies the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the dynamic impacts of energy intensity for secondary industry (SEI), tertiary industry value added per GDP (TVA), trade openness (TO) and domestic extraction per capita (DEC) on MP in the case of China during the period from 1980 to 2010. The validated and robust results of the model confirm the existence of cointegration among the variables both in the long and short run. The impacts of selected socioeconomic factors can be summarized as follows: 1) In the long run, an SEI decrease driven by technology improvement is found to be the main driver of MP, and a 1% decrease in SEI results in a 0.432% increase in MP; 2) The magnitude of the impact of TVA on MP is higher over the short run than over the long run; 3) TO can reluctantly promote MP both in the long and short run; 4) DEC exhibits fundamentally different behaviors in the long and short run. DEC is not a strongly significant factor for MP, and the magnitude of the impact is very weak in the long run. However, it has the greatest negative impact on MP in the short run, as a 1% increase in DEC results in a 0.519% decrease in MP, which demonstrates that the marginal revenue of resource input has already dramatically declined. These insights from the study could be considerably helpful for sustainable resource management and material productivity enhancement.
机译:物质生产率(MP),以相应的物质投入的经济产出(例如国内生产总值,GDP)来衡量,已引起广泛关注,已成为广泛的环境可持续性指标。 MP动力学的研究对于制定如何改善MP的政策非常重要。本文应用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型研究能源强度对第二产业(SEI),第三产业人均GDP增值(TVA),贸易开放度(TO)和人均国内开采量(DEC)的动态影响)在1980年至2010年期间以中国为例。模型的经过验证的稳健结果证实了长期和短期变量之间存在协整关系。选定的社会经济因素的影响可以归纳如下:1)从长远来看,发现技术进步推动的SEI下降是MP的主要驱动力,SEI下降1%会导致MP上升0.432%。 MP; 2)TVA对MP的影响在短期内要大于长期。 3)从长远来看,TO都可以勉强地推广MP; 4)DEC在长期和短期内表现出根本不同的行为。 DEC对MP并不是一个很重要的因素,从长远来看,影响的幅度很小。但是,它对MP的短期负面影响最大,因为DEC的1%的增加会导致MP的0.519%的降低,这表明资源投入的边际收益已经急剧下降。研究中的这些见解对于可持续资源管理和物质生产力的提高可能有很大帮助。

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